2017 | The Year of Rates, Relation, and Rotation
As we look back at 2016, the term resilient may be the best adjective to describe the performance of the broader market. According to Merriam-Websters dictionary, the word resilient is defined as the ability to become strong, healthy, or successful again after something bad happens which we believe embodies the traits displayed by equities last year.
Looking at 2017, we believe this year will be defined by rates, reflation and rotation as the market adapts to a new political regime. The shift from monetary to fiscal policy is now underway fueling further momentum in the reflation trade. Based on historical inauguration year price trends, we also expect another year of elevated volatility as President Trump settles in as president making active management paramount to outperformance.
Overall, we see an encouraging backdrop for equity markets in 2017 based on constructive economic and technical trends. We also believe the reflation trade will further impact the fixed income market and we remain bearish on treasuries. From our perspec tive, we see few alternatives to U.S. equities and reiterate our call for 2,424 on the S&P 500 by year -end 2017.